大崩壞
维基百科，自由的百科全书
大崩壞：人類社會的明天？(or 崩溃：社会如何选择失败或成功)是加州大學地理系教授賈德·戴蒙2005年的著作（ISBN 0143036556）。
戴蒙這本作品的前提是「涉及環境因素」的社會崩壞，「也有因氣候轉變、敵對族群和貿易伙伴而起的例子，與及社會反應的問題」（p. 15）。戴蒙寫作本書，是要讀著從歷史汲取教訓（p. 23）。
目录 |
[编辑] 大綱
大崩壞分為四個部份：
- 第一部份描述美國蒙大拿州的環境，以幾個人的生活為焦點，講述社會與環境的關係。
- 第二部份描述過去己崩潰的社會。戴蒙在考慮社會的崩壞時，使用一個由五組影響一固社會前景的因素合成的框架，包括：環境破壞，氣候轉變，敵對族群，貿易沒落和社會對環境問題的反應。戴蒙描述的社會為：
- Part Three examines modern societies, including:
- The collapse into genocide of Rwanda, caused in part by overpopulation
- The failure of Haiti compared with the relative success of its neighbour, the Dominican Republic
- The problems facing a Third World nation, China
- The problems facing a First World nation, Australia
- Part Four concludes the study by considering such subjects as business and globalization, and "extracts practical lessons for us today" (p. 22 – 23). Attention is given to the polder model as a way Dutch society has addressed its challenges.
In the prologue, Diamond previews Collapse in one paragraph, as follows.
- This book employs the comparative method to understand societal collapses to which environmental problems contribute. My previous book (Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies), had applied the comparative method to the opposite problem: the differing rates of buildup of human societies on different continents over the last 13,000 years. In the present book focusing on instead of collapses rather than buildups, I compare many past and present societies that differed with respect to environmental fragility, relations with neighbors, political institutions, and other "input" variables postulated to influence a society's stability. The "output" variables that I examine are collapse or survival, and form of the collapse if collapse does occur. By relating output variables to input variables, I aim to tease out the influence of possible input variables on collapses. (p. 18)
[编辑] Reviews
[编辑] Tim Flannery
Tim Flannery (as cited in "References") gave Collapse a warm review in Science, writing
- "... the fact that one of the world's most original thinkers has chosen to pen this mammoth work when his career is at his apogee is itself a persuasive argument that Collapse must be taken seriously. It is probably the most important book you will ever read."
[编辑] The Economist
The Economist's review (see 'References' below) was generally favorable, although the anonymous reviewer had two disagreements. Firstly, the reviewer felt Diamond was not optimistic enough about the future. Secondly, the reviewer claimed Collapse contains some erroneous statistics: for instance, Diamond supposedly overstated the number of starving people in the world.
[编辑] William Rees
University of British Columbia professor of ecological planning William Rees [1] (see "References" below) wrote that Collapse's most important lesson is that societies most able to avoid collapse are the ones that are most agile; they are able to adopt practices favorable to their own survival and avoid unfavorable ones. Moreoever, Rees wrote that Collapse is "a necessary antidote" to followers of Julian Simon, such as Bjørn Lomborg who authored The Skeptical Environmentalist. Rees explained this assertion as follows:
- "Human behaviour towards the ecosphere has become dysfunctional and now arguably threatens our own long-term security. The real problem is that the modern world remains in the sway of a dangerously illusory cultural myth. Like Lomborg, most governments and international agencies seem to believe that the human enterprise is somehow 'decoupling' from the environment, and so is poised for unlimited expansion. Jared Diamond's new book, Collapse, confronts this contradiction head-on."
[编辑] Jennifer Marohasy
In a recent edition of Energy and Environment, Jennifer Marohasy of the Institute of Public Affairs (a conservative think-tank in Australia), has a critical review of Collapse (see "References" below), in particular its chapter on Australia’s environmental degradation. Marohasy claims that Diamond reflects a popular view that is reinforced by environmental campaigning in Australia, but which is not supported by evidence, and argues that many of his claims are easily disproved.[2]
[编辑] Similar theories
In writing the book Diamond intended that its readers should learn from history (p. 23), re-igniting a theme explored by other historians.
British historian Arnold J. Toynbee in A Study of History (1934-1961) also studied the collapse of civilizations. Diamond agrees with Toynbee that "civilizations die from suicide, not by murder" when they fail to meet the challenges of their times. However, where Toynbee argues that the root cause of collapse is the decay of a society's "creative minority" into "a position of inherited privilege which it has ceased to merit", Diamond ascribes more weight to conscious minimization of environmental factors.
From another angle, U.S. historian Joseph Tainter in The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988) argues that observable causes of collapse such as environmental degradation ultimately result from diminishing returns on investments in energy, education and technological innovation.
[编辑] References
- Of porpoises and plantations. (2005, January 13). In The Economist, 374, 76.
- Flannery, T. (2005, January 7). Learning from the past to change our future. In Science, 307, 45.
- Rees, W. (2005, January 6). Contemplating the abyss. In Nature, 433, 15 – 16.
[编辑] See also
- Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies
- A Study of History by Arnold J. Toynbee
- The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter
- Creeping normalcy
- Decline of the Roman Empire, over 200 theories on why Rome collapsed.
[编辑] External links
- A review in The New Yorker
- The first chapter
- Tokugawa Shoguns vs. Consumer Democracy: Diamond interview on the subjects raised in the book with NPQ, Spring 2005, concentrating on the intersection of politics and environmentalism. One observation by Professor Diamond:
-
- "The historical record, at least, shows no general case for either democracy or dictatorship in terms of curbing environmental damage. The Tokugawa Shoguns made a good decision; the ruling kings of the Maya failed to take action."
- How Societies Fail-And Sometimes Succeed seminar given in June 2005 at the Long Now Foundation
- Jennifer Marohasy, "Australia's Environment: Undergoing Renewal, Not Collapse", Energy and Environment 16 (2005) (review; PDF file)
- Smith, Richard A. (2005). "Capitalism and Collapse: Contradictions of Jared Diamond's market meliorist strategy to save the humans". Ecological Economics 55 (2): 294-306.
