Victory disease
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Victory disease refers to the habit whereby military commanders, armies, sometimes whole nations, having experienced a series of previous military victories, becomes weak and susceptible to defeat. This is often characterized by the emergence of:
- arrogance, also known as hubris,
- complacency,
- established patterns of fighting, and the inability to develop new patterns to keep up with enemy advances
- Stereotypes of enemies, disregarding their actual military capacity
- ignorance of other options or refusal to recognize them, and,
- Using formerly-victorious tactics or technologies, and the refusal to adapt or develop new schemes.
One side is led to a false sense of military invincibility, and ultimate disaster. Victories convince one side that their tactics/weapons are superior; meanwhile the enemy develops new schemes and technologies. One side may become complacent and arrogant, believing the other can be easily crushed.
While "victory disease" does not automatically foretell failure, it is a strong indicator.
The term has applications outside the military world.
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[edit] Concept in more detail
Victory disease is usually applied after a series of military victories leads to arrogance or complacency, and ultimate disaster. A force that has been defeated recently will (should) analyze the reasons for defeat and change organization and tactics, but a winning force may blindly follow previous tactics, or even ignore basic rules of strategy due to overconfidence.
This may lead to an army going into combat without adequate preparation or with old tactics, or an offensive against superior force. On the political level, it may lead to a nation entering wars continually until it is exhausted. A related factor is the impact of logistics — a series of victories may lead to battles farther and farther from the home, which weakens available force by stretching the supply lines and forcing the detachment of occupation forces.
[edit] On the origin of the term
The origin of the term is usually associated with the Japanese advance in the Pacific Theater of World War II, where, after attacking Pearl Harbor in 1941, they won a series of nearly uninterrupted victories against the Allies in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Although they had planned to establish a perimeter and go on the defensive, their victories encouraged them to continue expanding the proposed perimeter to the point where it strained their logistics and navy. This culminated in the 1942 Battle of Midway, which resulted in a devastating defeat to the Japanese navy and the loss of all four aircraft carriers involved. The decision of Japan to initiate a war against the United States in the first place could also be described as Victory Disease following successes in the Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945) and the Russo-Japanese War.
[edit] A few historical examples
Examples abound; see the main article at Historical Examples of Victory Disease for more examples and detail.
The following (extremely abbreviated) list is perhaps illustrative:
- The Battle of Salamis in 480 BC during the Greco-Persian Wars, in which the hubris of Xerxes I led to a catastrophic defeat of the Persian Empire to the Greeks.
- The catastrophic decision by Napoleon to invade Russia in 1812 in which a force of 610,000 French soldiers invaded, and about 10,000 returned.
- United States victories against Mexico and American Indians led Union forces to be over-confident going into the Civil War. The Confederates similarly stereotyped the Union, at times leading to military disaster (see next).
- Decisions made at and before the 1863 Battle of Gettysburg by the Confederates after their outnumbered-five-to-two victory at the Battle of Chancellorsville during the American Civil War.
- The 1876 Battle of the Little Bighorn, in which Lt. Col. George Armstrong Custer and his army were near annihilated after assuming the Sioux were not capable of resistance.
- The catastrophic decision by Hitler to invade the Soviet Union in 1941, underestimating Soviet military resilience and counting on the success of the tactics used in previous campaigns, and Germany's subsequent declaration of war against the United States.
- Japan's catastrophic decision to attack Pearl Harbour on December 7, 1941.
- The success of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States has been laid to Victory Disease, brought on by America's Cold War "victory" over the Soviet Union in the previous decade.
[edit] Quotes
- "To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." — Sun Tzu, from The Art of War, Chapter IV, Tactical Dispositions,#2
