Talk:Retreat of glaciers since 1850

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Archives Archive 1 Archive 2

Contents 1 Thanks 2 Various words are emotionaly charged POV words 3 Glaciers that grow 3.1 Glaciers that Grow - The Controversy 3.2 Discussion 4 Great article, but ... 5 Heavy vandalism 6 New images 7 Impact of glacial retreat 8 Effect of anthroprogenic dust 9 Nice web pix

[edit] Thanks

Hey, guys, thanks for bailing me out. I was reverting a long string of vandalism and I also, without noticing it, reverted across some vandal's deletion. The upshot of this was that I lost a whole pile of stuff. Whilst trying to fix the huge mess I'd made, other editors rushed right in and fixed it up before I could shake a stick at it. This is a very well-maintained page by the look of your speed and accuracy. Thanks again and keep up the good work. — Dave 14:47, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Various words are emotionaly charged POV words

Most obvious was: "alarming", which has no place in an encylopedia. Joncnunn 15:40, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Glaciers that grow

An editor added the below new section. Between the waves of vandalism, and the rather overbold change to all the references, it's a little hard to pick out exactly who added this. There are some good concepts in the below, but it needs some substantial improvement, and also some discussion here, before it goes back in.

• The references given are simply not up-to-snuff formally. In getting this to FA status (and front page inclusion), we were careful to find complete citation details, and use appropriate reference templates. Just giving, e.g. "Tulaczyk and Howat" in parentheses falls far short of this: where did these authors publish? What is the paper title? What year? etc. The "visitor center" citation seems slightly weak as a source generally, but it needs to be fully fleshed out as a citation in any case.

• The heading: "The Controversy" is not so good. The case is wrong, but that's simple enough to fix. But the tone also suggests something more inflammatory or editorial that we want. There's also too much of the editorializing tone in words like "surprisingly".

• Much of these facts were already previously rejected (for relevance, not for accuracy) in this talk page. For example, St. Helens indeed has growing glaciers because of the rapid change of its topography to create a north-facing slope. That's an interesting phenomenon, but not really something that speaks to climatic or global trends or patterns. I'm not trying to "put my foot down" against discussing St. Helens, but we should discuss it more, given its prior (discussed) rejection for inclusion. I'd like to hear the experts chime in about some of the other examples too; there may be similarly special questions for those (I do not know the facts about this).

• The whole thing looks rather hastily written; including too many spelling and grammar errors. If the other issues didn't exist, I'd just fix them in place, but let's polish it a bit here first, and discuss the issues that need discussion.

Lulu of the Lotus-Eaters 16:41, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Glaciers that Grow - The Controversy

Despite the obvious shrinking of glaciers, there are quite a few that are growing. Such is the case of Hubbard Glacier, and 7 other glaciers in Alaska, that are not only not ablating, but are growing in size. The Hubbard previously retreated about 38 miles between 1130 A.D. and late in the 19th century, but is now currently advancing in such a rate it periodically closes off its outlet, the Russell Fiord, and turns it into a lake. (source: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 001-03 January 2003, by D.C. Trabant, R.S. March, and D.S. Thomas)

Another instance of glacier proliferation is, surprisingly, the glacier on mount St. Helens. The 13 different glaciers that made up icecap that covered this volcano prior to its eruption totally melted and/or evaporated during the 1980 disaster. Nonetheless, snow is once again accumulating and compacting near the north edge of the remaining crater, with crevasses visible in some areas wich give testimony to the ice's movement. (source: Johnston and Coldwater Ridge visitors center)

Also in North America, California's Mount Shasta's glaciers are growing. The Whitney Glacier, for example, is galloping forward at the rate of four inches per day. Aerial images indicate Whitney has expanded by about 30 percent in the last 50 years. (Tulaczyk and Howat)

On the other side of the globe, in New Zealand, the story is similar with the Franz Josef glacier. The ice mass, which is steeper than most, advances at a surprising 3 meters per day. (source: C. de Freitas, School of Geography and Environmental Science at Auckland University, N.Z.)

These and many other examples of glaciers wich are apparently oblivious to supposed global warming have led many scientists to disbarr the theory of global warming complete or partially, at the very least. These (citation needed) conclude that climate change is more likeley to be regional other than at a global level. Nonetheless, many of these regional changes can be directly traced to human activities such as deforestation or alterations of rivers and other bodies of water.

[edit] Discussion

Basically, you are talking about a relative few glaciers that are growing. The Franz Josef glacier is mentioned in the article and the reason for a few glaciers "growing" in New Zealand is explained and referenced. Mount St Helens glaciers were essentially eliminated in 1980 and once the mountain calmed down by 1986, a favorable situation was gained by the cliff sheltered caldera which was sheltered on the south side of the summit, allowing a glacier to develope and expand to a point of mass balance equilibrium, that is until 2004 when the volcano became active again. Much of the creavssing since is due to the uplift of the newer volcanic dome that originated right under the glacier. I just tried to google Mount Shasta and Whitney about glaciers and all I found was a few general references such as [1]. Again, the article wasn't written to support an a priori belief system...we did try to find proof that there was overall glacier advance since 1850, and overall, worldwide, there wasn't.--MONGO 18:07, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

Why after getting an article just so to be featured status cant it be locked for 24 hours, to avoid the hysteria that seems to occur. We have noted a number of advancing glaciers from Alaska, Norway and New Zealand. Given the literally 2000 observed retreating glaciers in Alaska most unmentioned mentioning even one of the seven advancing glaciers is giving it more than its share of room. I am not convinced that the data on Mount Shasta glaciers is good. I had a chance to review the article before publication and the pictures they provided did not bear out the picture told. The same group did use pictures to show the retreat in the Sierra Nevada. Peltoms 21:53, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

We discussed de Freitas on 20 February on this page. To quote from that discussion, "he was an editor of Climate Research a minor journal that subsequently disavowed his editorial work (publishing a flawed paper by Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas) amid three resignations from its editorial board." --Walter Siegmund (talk) 22:28, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Great article, but ...

... doesn't the first sentence contain a peacock term? SP-KP 22:22, 18 April 2006 (UTC)

May I suggest that you have a go at it per {{sofixit}}? Thanks, --Walter Siegmund (talk) 01:50, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

You may. However, it looks like someone else has already fixed it. Well done that person. SP-KP 17:56, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

It was me. I decided to give it a try after commenting here. Feel free to improve on my effort. --Walter Siegmund (talk) 20:36, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Heavy vandalism

This article has been vandalized quite a bit over the last 24 hours. I have taken the intermediate step of semi-protecting it per policy. --Jay(Reply) 00:38, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

Unfortunately such vandalism is common for articles featured as "Today's featured article". Though, now that we've moved on to Cheers, with this article merely listed under "Recently featured", I think the vandalism will die down. As such, in my opinion, I don't think sprotection is needed but will defer to your judgment. -Aude (talk | contribs) 00:44, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

You're probably right on that one. It has been close to half an hour. I will now remove the protection. --Jay(Reply) 01:00, 19 April 2006 (UTC)

From the perspective of covering the most substantial and important observed glacier retreat it would be the mid latitude glaciers. I do not understand why Tropical glaciers have been placed first now. They are the least significant area of glaciers. I suggest they be relegated down the article a bit. I would so myself now, but just thought to ask the question first.Peltoms 01:51, 20 April 2006 (UTC)

I did this so that the discussion would proceed working from the equator north and south towards the poles. I agree that the tropics is less substantive, but just moving the sections will also require some rewriting of the sections to fix the flow of the content. But aren't the minor glaciers there that are about to disappear also of inherent interest? I prefer to keep the article much as it was when it became a featured article, but I do agree that an overempahsis of the tropics by placing that section first may be misleading. No doubt, the greatest changes have occured in the mid latitudes.--MONGO 02:55, 20 April 2006 (UTC)

[edit] New images

I'm thinking of adding these images with something close to the following commet in the article...if anybody is still out there, feel free to comment of course.

Repeat photography such as the images shown below of Grinnell Glacier located in Glacier National Park (US), provide basic observable evidence of glacier retreat.

1938 T.J. Hileman GNP 1981 Carl Key (USGS) 1998 Dan Fagre (USGS) 2005 Blase Reardon (USGS)

--MONGO 09:49, 14 May 2006 (UTC) The pictures look good. I think you do not need the 1998 image. I also suggest that for some of the repeat photographs of the same glacier. That they can go to the glacier page. Certainly there are too many to include them all here. I know Grinnell is the poster child. Peltoms 15:16, 16 May 2006 (UTC)

Just thought 1998 was helpful since we discuss how the rate of retreat has accelerated and the changes in the 7 years between 1998 and 2005 are rather large. Interesting that the ice shelf known as the Salamander, located above Grinnell Glacier has shown almost no change at all.--MONGO 04:32, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

Also...I added these images to Grinnell Glacier and also to Glacier National Park (US)...however, I was asked to remove the 1998 image and place them to the right...a style I do not like as one must scroll up and down the page now to see them all.--MONGO 04:34, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

I have made this (and several similar) stacked images that show alarming retreat of glaciers around the world over this rather short interval. Note the large increase in the size of the three terminal lakes, the retreat of the white ice (ice free of moraine cover) and, more subtly, the increase in height of the moraine walls due to ice thinning. Two of these glaciers are in Connelley's picture in the current article. Worth adding somewhere?

It will be interesting when the 1975 Geocover mosaic is available and can easily be added (but unfortunately the 1975 pre-MSS imagery may look rather different). --Glen Fergus 05:34, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Nifty...I'm using a rather lousy browser right now but will review them again in a couple of hours. You said they are in Connelley's picture..which one?--MONGO 05:41, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

This one.

The view is from the bottom left in my image, from the Mueller Hut track across the Mueller glacier terminal and up the Hooker Valley.

Animated gif should work fine in most browsers??

[Some might also be interested in this 2003 image of the Puncak Jaya glaciers, or what is left of them. The view angle is similar to the USGS shots, but a little more distant. The purple in the foreground is the Freeport Copper Mine pit. Unfortunately made with Google Earth (from PD Landsat 7 imagery), so has copyright issues.]

--Glen Fergus 06:06, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

I suppose gifs work in most browsers, not sure though...works for me fine. Yes, Puncak Jaya glaciers are almost gone now...I wish we had a more recent photograph from USGA to help compare. When I added the images of repeat photography of Puncak Jaya, they were at that time the only ones I was able to locate...now we also have many from Glacier National Park...and I saw the following USGS linked gif that is also a copywrite issue for us as they use it by permission...[2] (bottom of page) I don't know if we can add the gif you have here...but I am seriously considering starting an article about repeat photographic evidence of glacier retreat, since now we seem to be able to obtain more images than even six months ago.--MONGO 07:39, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Yeah, clear photos are hard to ignore.

Here is a recent (2005) astronaut pic morphed into an approximate repeat of the USGS Puncak Jaya photos using the World Wind DTM.

Not much left there.

--Glen Fergus 09:07, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Scary...I'll live to see many famous glaciers simply disappear. Lovely copper mine though...surely the environmental constrants there would be unacceptable in most western countries, no offense to Indonesia, but some big western company is probably running the show there anyway. I mean, look at the disturbed terrain, that thing must be huge.--MONGO 09:46, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Looking at the larger of the glaciers, does that appear to be the Meren or the Carstensz Glacier? Looks like the northwall firn is almost completely gone.--MONGO 09:51, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Meren glacier disappeared completely some time between 1994 and 2000[3]. The two bits on the left are what remains of the Northwall Firn. Carstenz Glacier, just to the right of the peak, is thicker and will be the last to go. It'll all be gone for ever well inside 10 years, making greater-Australia probably the first completely ice-free continent on the planet in 2 million years. (Africa can't win - Kilimanjaro is nearly gone, but there is still one fairly thick glacier left on Mt Kenya.)

Freeport is the second largest copper mine in the world, highly destructive, and, of course, American owned and run. Their taxes make up about half the Indonesian budget, so they don't really have a choice... --Glen Fergus 10:36, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Yes, silly question, since I added and referenced that Meren had disappeared when I helped write this article. Okay, where should these images go...I don't want to overload the article too much, but it has already been featured and also on the main page for Wikiopedia, so I am certainly happy to add updated information and imagery. Feel free to edit as you like and I or others can make stylistic changes if you are not familiar with the referencing style or other formats. All contributions that help make the article better and keep it up to date are always very much appreciated. Also notice in the last discussion section that there are other repeat images that may be useful here or in a subarticle linked from this one.--MONGO 10:43, 10 June 2006 (UTC)

Done ... tried to keep it low-key. --Glen Fergus 11:18, 12 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Impact of glacial retreat

If the world's oceans were to rise 70 m, what kind of local impact on sea level would that have? I've understood that it is not directly equal to local rise of 70 m. For example just a 0,5 meter rise would submerge many coastal areas, which are located at higher than 0,5 meters. Teemu Ruskeepää 08:27, 25 May 2006 (UTC)

Countries that would have a real impact include Nauru and the Maldives as they are very low and they have no where to goo to rebuild. The evidence for a sea level rise of 70m in the next several centuries is almost zero. However, as you point out, just a 10-15m rise would require many urban areas to make major adjustments including diking, levees and or relocation. New Orleans, New York, Amsterdam, and many other urban areas would be greatly impacted. With the vast majority of glacial ice locked up in Greenland and Antarctica, all the ice there would have to melt to bring sea levels up in a massive way. Thermal expansion may also enhance sea level rise significantly.--MONGO 10:01, 25 May 2006 (UTC)

A 1 m rise in sea level averaged over the world will have a roughly 1 m effect locally. It may be modulated somewhat by dynamics (ocean circulation changes), inverse barometer (sea level is higher where air pressure is lower), salinity changes and water temperature changes, but I think those are much smaller effects than 1 m. Most floods are caused by storms; if storm severity or frequency is increased, that may have a larger impact than the sea level rise itself.

Bangladesh has 10 million people (out of a population of 146 million) that live on the 10% of the country that would be flooded if the sea level were to rise by 1 metre. Bangladesh is located on the Ganges Delta. It is analogous to the Mississippi River Delta in the United States that includes New Orleans, but is larger and far more populous. Walter Siegmund (talk) 05:34, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

Thanks, I think you did a better job answering his question--MONGO 06:53, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

Thanks, Walter, I was seeking an answer to local impacts. Teemu Ruskeepää 19:14, 28 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Effect of anthroprogenic dust

A story on NPR this morning indicates that anthropogenic dust causes premature melting of the previous winter's snow pack. This may have implications for the mass balance of glaciers; has anyone looked into this factor in that context? [4] Walter Siegmund (talk) 16:02, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

I'll see where we can fit this...it is noteworthy...any suggestions?--MONGO 20:14, 1 June 2006 (UTC):

The impact of more dust on glaciers has long been noted as a problem in the Alps when south winds carry material from the Sahara. In this case it is referring to an increase in dust events in the last two years in Colorado. Do not carried away that it is significant yet.Peltoms 02:05, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Perhaps we should wait until other groups have an opportunity to look into it. If we do add it, we need to indicate that it is not a well-established effect. Thank you for commenting. Walter Siegmund (talk) 22:12, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

I was at a conference where one of the researchers on this project presented a paper last week. It is clear that this is a trend that seems reasonable but is not showing up other than this year being very dusty.Peltoms 00:34, 14 June 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Nice web pix

http://www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/morteratsch/comparison/index-en.html has some nice pix. Not sure where to add the link so leaving it here. William M. Connolley 19:30, 1 June 2006 (UTC)

Yes, good find...I added it to the article...thank you.--MONGO 20:13, 1 June 2006 (UTC)

This has no quantitative data to go along with it. I will be seeing the author shortly and will talk to him about that.Peltoms 02:08, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Let us know what you find out please...good to have some connections I might say.--MONGO 09:54, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

Very fine. Thank you. Walter Siegmund (talk) 16:56, 4 June 2006 (UTC)

I added material on the Morteratsch Glacier. There is a better photographic record than they have online, at least thus far, can't wait to see it. The National Snow and Ice Data Center published some new pairs todays as well from Alaska. http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_collection.html The web page is rough, but if you click submit the whole group comes up. I will email them about using one good Alaskan pair for the article if you think it wise. Peltoms 00:55, 6 June 2006 (UTC)

I've already been looking at these. They describe conditions on use if you follow through to the specific images. Most seem to be public domain or free use with attribution. Dragons flight 00:59, 6 June 2006 (UTC)