Olduvai theory
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The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000.[1] The name is a reference to the Olduvai Gorge in Africa. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.
The Olduvai theory states that industrial civilization (using a special definition — see below) will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.
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[edit] Details of theory
The Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time from when energy production per capita rises above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The 30% point is 3.32 boe/c/yr (barrels of oil equivalent per capita per year). The peak is 11.15 boe/c/yr and occurred in 1979.
The part of the decline from 1979 to 1999 is called the Olduvai slope. The rest is predicted to occur in two stages:
- The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'
- The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'I know of no precedent in human history.'
In terms of energy, world oil production per capita also peaked in 1979 and has since fallen faster than world energy consumption per capita. The paper does not mention that standards of living have nevertheless improved significantly since 1979 because energy-efficiency has increased, or that such increases would likely accelerate if energy became more scarce. Neither does it address the fact that during the oil shocks of the 1970s, total energy consumption (including oil, coal, gas, nuclear and renewables) was essentially flat despite a precipitous drop of 17% in crude oil production within a few years (as production of other sources increased to compensate for the reduction in oil supply), and that economic growth continued during this time and has continued robustly since.
[edit] Future civilizations
The paper contains a 1964 quote from Fred Hoyle, stating that if the industrial civilization does collapse, with the fossil fuels and "high-grade" metallic ores gone, no species from Earth will ever reach the same level of technology as we now enjoy.
[edit] Quote
In justification of his reference to Olduvai Gorge, Duncan writes:
...(1) it is justly famous, (2) I've been there, (3) its long hollow sound is eerie and ominous, and (4) it is a good metaphor for the 'Stone Age way of life'.
[edit] See also
- Future energy development
- Great Depression
- The Hubbert peak theory, also known as "peak oil," an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil production and depletion.
- Societal collapse
- White's law
[edit] References
Two of the references for the paper are other websites. The one that does not work is as follows:
- Duncan, RC (2000a). The Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method: User's Guide & Forecast #4. www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/ (Forecast #4). 30 p.
This site is no longer accessible. Some versions of this site, however, are available in the Internet Archive at http://web.archive.org/web/*/http%3A//www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/.
[edit] Further reading
- A paper "The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization" is published in The Social Contract, Vol. XVI, No. 2, Winter 2005-2006, pp. 134-144. A copy is available free at http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf
[edit] External links
- The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization (less complete than the paper referenced above but updated more recently)
- "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999)
- "Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" by Jean Laherrere (2003) (PDF file)
- "2006 Long-Term Reliability Assessment" from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC)
