As Maine goes, so goes the country
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"As Maine goes, so goes the country" or "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was a phrase in wide currency at one time in United States politics.
The origin of this phrase lies in the political science theory that Maine was a bellwether state for presidential elections. Beginning with its creation as a state in 1820 when it split off from Massachusetts, Maine held its elections for statewide and congressional offices in September,[1] not November as did most other states, on the premise that inclement weather, poor roads, and a scattered population reduced voter turnout in November.[2] For various periods in the 1800s, Vermont, Ohio, and Indiana also scheduled September or October general elections for the same reasons. Maine continued to hold its presidential elections in November.[3] The U.S. Constitution only requires that all electors for President cast their votes on the same day—the states are empowered by Congress to decide when to hold the popular vote that chooses those electors.[4]
Maine's reputation as a bellwether began in 1840, when it voted in Edward Kent, the Whig Party candidate, as Governor of Maine. Two months later, the Whig party presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison, won the 1840 presidential election.[1] With the 1888 presidential election between Benjamin Harrison and Grover Cleveland close, Maine voted solidly for the Republican Party and the nation followed in November in electing Harrison.[5] It was with this election that the saying was coined, though it is unknown who originated it.[5] As the winning political party in Maine in September had proven to be the national winner in November on many occasions, national political parties often went to considerable lengths in their attempts to win in Maine, despite the state's relatively small population (and hence number of seats in the House of Representatives) and somewhat remote location.
In 1936, Maine elected a Republican Governor, Lewis O. Barrows, an overwhelmingly Republican state legislature, and an all-Republican congressional delegation in their early September balloting, causing Republicans to trumpet this phrase. Maine had elected a Democratic Governor and two Democratic congressmen in both 1932 (although the state still voted for Republican President Herbert Hoover that November) and 1934, and the Democrats had been making gains in the Maine Legislature, so the Republican victories in Maine in September 1936 may have seemed indicative of a national Republican trend. That November, however, only Maine and Vermont voted for Republican nominee and Kansas Governor Alf Landon over President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election, giving Landon only eight electoral votes (the three from Vermont and the five from Maine),[6] equalling the smallest total ever (as of 2006) won by a major-party nominee since the beginning of the current U.S. two-party system in the 1850s, and destroying the credibility of the phrase permanently. Democratic political powerhouse James Farley rewrote the phrase, proclaiming "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont."[7][8]
In 1957, Maine changed its election law to hold all general elections in November. Beginning in 1960 it held elections at the same time as the rest of the United States,[7] ending the tradition of early voting.
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[edit] References
- ^ a b Harkavy, Jerry (September 6, 1998). 'As Maine goes' tradition went - long ago. AP/South Coast Today.
- ^ 2006 Campaign Tip Sheet - Maine state profile. National Journal. Retrieved on 2006-10-13.
- ^ Mills, Paul H. (September 10, 2006). 'As Maine goes'. Sun Journal (Lewiston, ME).
- ^ Article II of the United States Constitution. Cornell Law School, Legal Information Institute.
- ^ a b Speel, Robert W. (1994). “Chapter 2: Vermont, the North, and Realignment”, Changing Patterns of Voting. Penn State Press.
- ^ Morison, Samuel Eliot (1972). “Chapter XII, The New Deal”, The Oxford History of the American People, Vol. 3, p. 328.
- ^ a b Ken Rudin (July 14, 2000). The Significance of the V.P. Pick. The Washington Post.
- ^ "As the Nation Goes", Time Magazine, September 23, 1957.
