United States presidential election, 1980
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The U.S. presidential election of 1980 featured a contest between incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter and his Republican opponent, Ronald Reagan. Carter was blamed for soaring inflation, high interest rates, and stagnant economy at home, and a deteriorating situation abroad, especially in the Middle East where the Iran hostage crisis proved humiliating. Many Americans saw Carter as having failed to have dealt with any of these situations either decisively or effectively. Carter, after defeating Ted Kennedy for the nomination, attacked Reagan as a dangerous radical. Reagan, the charismatic ex-Governor of California, repeatedly ridiculed Carter's ineffectiveness and won a landslide victory that carried the United States Senate for the first time in 28 years. This win marked the beginning of the "Reagan Revolution."
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[edit] Background
Through the 1970s, the United States was experiencing a longish period of low economic growth, high inflation, and intermittent energy crises. By the beginning of the election season, the prolonged Iran hostage crisis added to a general feeling of a national "malaise" that followed the Watergate scandal and the end of the Vietnam War.
[edit] Nominations
[edit] Republican Party nomination
Republican Candidates
- John Bayard Anderson, U.S. representative from Illinois
- Howard Baker, U.S. senator from Tennessee and Senate Minority Leader
- George H.W. Bush, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and former chairman of the Republican National Committee
- John Connally, former governor of Texas, former Secretary of the Navy, and former Secretary of the Treasury
- Phil Crane, U.S. representative from Illinois
- Bob Dole, U.S. senator from Kansas and 1976 vice-presidential nominee
- Ronald Reagan, former governor of California and former candidate for the 1976 presidential nomination
As the 1970s came to a close, Former Governor Ronald Reagan was the odds-on favorite to win his party's nomination for president on his third try for the nod. He was ahead in all the polls, so far ahead, in fact, that campaign director John Sears had decided on an "above the frey" strategy and didn't attend many of the multicandidate forums and straw poll events held in the summer and fall of 1979.
However, George Bush, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and chairman of the Republican National Committee, taking a page from the George McGovern/Jimmy Carter playbook, did go to all the so-called "cattle calls", and began to come in first at a number of these mostly meaningless events.
In January of 1980, The Iowa Republicans decided to have a straw poll as a part of their caucuses for that year. Bush's hard work paid off, and he defeated Reagan by a small margin. Bush declared he had the "Big Mo" and with Reagan boycotting the Puerto Rico primary in deference to New Hampshire, the victorious Bush looked like he might actually grab the nod from the popular Reagan.
With the other candidates in single digits, Bush demanded a one-on-one debate with the former Governor,and one was set up. Unbeknownst to Bush however, Reagan had invited the rest of the "pack" to the debate and when Reagan invited them to the stage, Bush was stunned, but Reagan insisted the rest of the candidates participate. The people running the debate turned off the sound system, and this played right into Reagan's hands. "I PAID for this microphone!" he thundered with anger. Bush's "big mo" was stopped dead in its tracks. A week later, Reagan would win New Hamphsire by a large margin.
Reagan swept the South, and although he lost five more primaries to Bush, including one where he came in third behind John Anderson, the former governor had a lock on the nomination very early in the season. Reagan would always be grateful to the people of Iowa for giving him "the kick in the pants" he needed.
Reagan was an adherent to a policy known as "supply side economics." Supply-side economists led the assault on high taxes and high spending that typified the welfare state built up by the New Deal and Great Society. The solution, they argued, was to take economic decisions away from the government and place them in the hands of individuals.
Reagan promised an economic revival that would affect all sectors of the population. But since cutting taxes would reduce government revenues, it would also be necessary to target "big government." Otherwise, large federal deficits might negate the effects of the tax cut by requiring the government to borrow in the marketplace, thus raising interest rates and drying up capital for investment once again. Thus, Reagan promised a drastic cut in "big government," which he pledged would produce a balanced budget for the first time since 1969. In the primaries Bush famously called Reagan's economic policy "voodoo economics."
The 1980 Republican National Convention was held in Detroit, Michigan in the month of July.
the Tally at the convention was as follows:
-
- Ronald Reagan 1,939
- John Bayard Anderson 37
- George H.W.Bush 13
- Anne Armstrong 1
- Abstaining 4
Reagan initially negotiated with Gerald Ford to be his running mate; when the complex plan fell through (Ford reportedly insisted Henry Kissinger and Alan Greenspan be offered cabinet positions), Reagan chose Bush as the Republican vice presidential candidate.
For Vice President the vote was:
-
- George H.W.Bush 1,832
- Jesse Helms 54
- Jack F. Kemp 42
- Phil Crane 23
- Scattering 43
[edit] Democratic Party nomination
Democratic Candidates
- Jerry Brown, governor of California
- Jimmy Carter, incumbent President of the United States
- Ted Kennedy, U.S. senator from Massachusetts
The spring and summer of 1979 were not particularly pleasant times in America. Unemployment was high, inflation was on the rise, and in California, the gasoline supply was running out. The gas lines last seen just after the Arab/Israeli war of 1973 were back and President Carter was widely blamed.
The President’s approval ratings were very low -- 28% according to Gallup,[1] with some other polls giving even lower numbers. Editorial writers opined that Carter’s election proved that anyone could be President, but that wasn’t such a good idea. People who considered themselves liberal began pining for Gerald Ford.[citation needed] In July Carter returned from Camp David to purge his cabinet and give his notorious "malaise" speech to the nation. The leadership of the Democratic party and much of its rank-and-file began to panic.
"Who would save us from this poor excuse for a president?" they asked.[citation needed] Replacing an incumbent had only happened twice in living memory, Harry S. Truman in 1952 and Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968. Jerry Brown, Governor of California, was running, but Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy was widely considered the only one with the stature to take the President.
The Kennedys had a glamour that no other political family ever had. Even when all three brothers were alive, there was this sense of dynastic entitlement. The death of President Kennedy in 1963 had given the family an aura of nostalgic grace, something that his brother Robert had successfully used this as a badge of family entitlement to the Presidency. This mythical aura of entitlement began to cling on Edward as soon as his other brother was shot down in Los Angeles the night of the California primary.
Ted Kennedy had been asked to take his brother’s place at the 1968 Democratic Convention and had refused. He ran for Senate Majority Whip in 1969, however, and many thought that he was going to use that as a platform for 1972.[2] But then came the notorious Chappaquiddick incident.
Kennedy refused to run in 1972, and again in 1976. Many suspected that Chappaquiddick had destroyed any ability he had to win on a national level. However, in the summer of 1979, he consulted with his family, and that fall, he let it leak out that because of Carter’s failings, 1980 might indeed be the year. Gallup had him beating the president by over two to one.
Kennedy’s official announcement was scheduled for early November. There was a prime time interview with CBS’s Roger Mudd and it was a minor disaster. Kennedy flubbed a number of the questions and couldn’t exactly explain why he was running, and the polls, which showed him leading the President by 58-25 in August now had him ahead 49-39.[3] Then the hostages were taken in Teheran, Iran and the bottom fell out of the Kennedy campaign.
Carter’s approval ratings jumped 14.61% in just a week, due to a "rally ‘round the flag" effect,[4] and Kennedy was suddenly left far behind. Carter beat Kennedy decisively in Iowa and New Hampshire. Some Democrats began to feel that "Teddy" was becoming an embarrassment and should withdraw. Carter decisively defeated Kennedy everywhere except Massachusetts, until impatience began to build with the President’s strategy on Iran. When the primaries in New York and Connecticut came around, it was Kennedy who won.
Carter was still able maintian a substantial lead even after Kennedy swept the last batch of primaries in June. Despite this, Kennedy refused to drop out, and the 1980 Democratic National Convention was one of the nastiest on record. On the penultimate day, Kennedy conceded the nomination and called for a more liberal party platform in what many saw as the best speech of his career. On the platform on the final day, Kennedy for the most part ignored Carter.
The presidential tally was in part:
- Jimmy Carter 2,129.02
- Ted Kennedy 1,150.48
- William Proxmire 10
- 14 others 56.5
In the vice presidential roll call, Mondale was re-nominated with 2,428.7 votes to 723.3 not voting and 179 scattering.
[edit] Other nominations
John Bayard Anderson, after being defeated in the Republican primaries, entered the general election as an Independent candidate because of his opposition to the more conservative policies of Reagan. His support levels in the polls fell every week as his former supporters were pulled away by Carter, who was more liberal, or Reagan, who was more conservative.
His running mate was Patrick Lucey, former Governor of state of Wisconsin and then Ambassador to Mexico, appointed by President Carter.
The Libertarian Party nominated Edward Clark for President and David H. Koch for Vice President.
The Socialist Party USA nominated David McReynolds for President and Sister Diane Drufenbrock for Vice President, making McReynolds the first openly gay man to run for President.
[edit] General election
[edit] Campaign
Under federal election laws, Carter and Reagan received $29 million each, and Anderson $18.5. They were not allowed to spend any other money. Carter and Reagan each spent about $15 million on television advertising, and Anderson under $2 million.
The 1980 election is considered by some to be a realigning election. Reagan ran a campaign of upbeat optimism, together with implications of a more militarily aggressive foreign policy. This contrasted with the "malaise"-ridden attitude of the late Carter administration and its apparent impotence in the face of the Iran hostage crisis. Towards the end of the campaign, as Carter's poll numbers continued to slip and Reagan's rose, Carter responded with more militaristic rhetoric and announced plans to re-institute the military draft; this succeeded only in alienating some of Carter's supporters. With inflation and interest rates at record highs, and unemployment stubbornly high, Carter had few boasts to make about the economy. He had a pro-feminist record, but the management of many women's groups attacked him for not doing even more. On foreign policy the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan spelled the end of detente and the renewal of the Cold War. Carter moved to the right, but Reagan was already there.
Reagan promised a restoration of the nation's military strength. Reagan also promised an end to "'trust me' government" and to restore economic health by implementing a supply-side economic policy. Reagan promised a balanced budget within three years (which he said would be "the beginning of the end of inflation"), accompanied by a 30% reduction in taxes over those same years. With respect to the economy, Reagan famously said, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his."
In August, after the Republican National Convention, Ronald Reagan gave a campaign speech at an annual county fair on the outskirts of Philadelphia, Mississippi, which civil rights leaders said was an insensitive reminder of the Mississippi civil rights worker murders of 1964.
Reagan announced, "I believe in states' rights." He also said, "I believe we have distorted the balance of our government today by giving powers that were never intended to be given in the Constitution to that federal establishment." He went on to promise to "restore to states and local governments the power that properly belongs to them." [1] Critics claimed that the speech signaled Reagan's opposition to the civil rights reforms of the 1960s. However, Reagan supporters would argue that the speech was simply a statement of Reagan's political ideals of smaller and less powerful federal government.
As in most elections fought against an incumbent, the voters already had a clear impression of Carter, which was largely negative by this time, and both sides spent most of their effort trying to define Reagan, the challenger. The campaign was largely negative, with many voters disliking Carter but also perceiving Reagan as an intellectual lightweight, possibly unable to handle the presidency and with various questionable policies.
The election of 1980 was a key turning point in American politics. It signaled the new electoral power of the suburbs and the Sun Belt. Reagan's success as a conservative would initiate a realigning of the parties, as liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats would either leave politics or change party affiliations through the 1980s and 1990s to leave the parties much more ideologically polarized.
Although Reagan's candidacy was burdened by Representative John B. Anderson of Illinois, a liberal Republican who ran as an independent, the three major issues of the campaign were far greater threats to Carter's prospects for reelection: the economy, national security, and the Iranian hostage crisis. Carter seemed unable to control inflation and had not succeeded in obtaining the release of US hostages in Tehran before the election, losing eight soldiers in a failed attempt to mount a rescue.
[edit] The Debates
The most important event of the entire 1980 presidential campaign was the second presidential debate, which was held on the Friday before the election. Over the course of two hours, the entire race changed drastically, and what was considered an extremely tight race with the President slightly ahead became a Republican landslide.
Nothing of that magnitude has happened since in any televised confrontations.
The League of Women Voters, who had sponsored the 1976 Ford/Carter series, announced that it would do so again for the next cycle in the spring of 1979. However, Carter wasn’t all keen to participate. He had repeatedly refused to debate Sen. Kennedy during the primary season, and had given ambivalent signals as to his participation in the fall.
The LWV had announced a schedule of debates similar to 1976, three presidential and one vice presidential. No one had much of a problem with this until it was announced that Rep. John Anderson might be invited to participate along with Carter and Reagan. Carter steadfastly refused to participate with Anderson included and Reagan refused to debate without, after all, (see above), the demand for full participation of all the candidates involved had worked very well in the primaries.
The first debate took place in Baltimore, Maryland on September 21st. The President was nowhere to be found. Moderated by Bill Moyers, the confrontation between Anderson and Reagan was considered a dud. Anderson, who many thought would handily dispatch the former Governor, could only, in the opinion of those in the media paid to pontificate on such matters, manage a draw. Anderson, who had been as high as 20% in some polls and at the time of the debate was over ten, dropped to about five soon after. Still, with the President boycotting, the whole thing seemed meaningless and ratings were low.
As September turned into October, the situation remained pretty much the same. Reagan demanded Anderson in and Carter demanded him out. As the standoff continued, the second round was canceled, as was the Vice Presidential debate.
With two weeks to go to the election, the Reagan campaign decided that the best thing to do at that moment was to accede to all of Carter’s demands, and LWV agreed to disinvite Congressman Anderson from the remaining debate, which was rescheduled for October 28th in Cleveland, OH.
Moderated by Howard K. Smith, the Presidential Debate between President Carter and Governor Reagan received among the highest ratings of any TV show in the previous decade, while much substance was discussed such as the Iranian hostage crisis, nuclear arms treaties and proliferation, Carter's campaign sought to portray Reagan as a reckless "hawk." Reagan would have none of it, and it came as no surprise, then, when the candidates repeatedly clashed over the nuclear weapons issue in their debate. But it was Carter's reference to his consultation with daughter Amy that became the focus of post-debate analysis and late-night television jokes. It is believed that it was this one remark, plus Carter’s angry demeanor, that destroyed his campaign.
Reagan's demeanor, on the other hand, was sunny and tolerant. When Carter made a reference to the governor’s record, he replied with a cheerful “There you go again…”
In his closing remarks, Reagan asked a simple yet devastating question that would resonate with voters in 1980 and beyond: "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" According to Carter aide Jody Powell’s memoirs, internal tracking polls showed Carter’s tiny lead turning into a major Reagan landslide over the final weekend.
The debate had been, for the president, quite devastating.
[edit] Results
The election was held on November 4, 1980. Reagan beat Carter by 10% in the popular vote. Republicans also gained control of the Senate for the first time in twenty-five years on Reagan's coattails. The electoral college vote was a landslide, with 489 votes (representing 44 states) for Reagan and 49 for Carter (representing 6 states and the District of Columbia). John Anderson won no electoral votes, but got 5,720,060 popular votes.
Libertarian Party candidate Ed Clark received 921,299 popular votes. The Libertarians succeeded in getting Clark on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Clark's best showing was in Alaska where he received 12% of the vote; as of 2006, this is the best performance by a Libertarian presidential candidate. Citizens Party candidate Barry Commoner, on the ballots in 31 states, received 234,294 popular votes. His running mate, La Donna Harris, was the second known Native American to run for national office, after Charles Curtis in 1928.
[edit] Trivia
After Ronald Reagan and George Bush were officially nominated, the two runnning mates held a joint press conference in which the microphones kept malfunctioning. Recalling Reagan's memorable line from the New Hampshire primary campaign, a reporter asked Reagan, "Governor, who paid for these microphones?" The press and the candidates greeted the question with hapless laughter.
A television ad from the Jerry Brown campaign that aired in Wisconsin showed an image of the California governor with parts of the picture marred by splotches of empty space due to a technical snafu, giving the appearance of holes in the candidate's head. Brown had publicly stated that he needed a win in the Wisconsin primary to stay in the campaign; he dropped out when he lost.
In his nomination acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, President Carter recalled deceased Democratic leaders and referred to Hubert H. Humphrey, whose middle name was Horatio, as "Hubert Horatio Hornblower." He quickly corrected himself.
[edit] Statistics
| Presidential Candidate | Party | Home State | Popular Vote | Electoral Vote | Running Mate | Running Mate's Home State |
Running Mate's Electoral Vote |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | |||||||
| Ronald Wilson Reagan | Republican | California | 43,903,230 | 50.7% | 489 | George Herbert Walker Bush | Texas | 489 |
| James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. | Democratic | Georgia | 35,480,115 | 41.0% | 49 | Walter Frederick Mondale | Minnesota | 49 |
| John Bayard Anderson | (none) | Illinois | 5,719,850 | 6.6% | 0 | Patrick John Lucey | Wisconsin | 0 |
| Ed Clark | Libertarian | California | 921,128 | 1.1% | 0 | David H. Koch | Kansas | 0 |
| Barry Commoner | Citizens | Missouri | 233,052 | 0.3% | 0 | La Donna Harris | Oklahoma | 0 |
| Other | 252,303 | 0.3% | 0 | Other | 0 | |||
| Total | 86,509,678 | 100.0% | 538 | Total | 538 | |||
| Needed to win | 270 | Needed to win | 270 | |||||
Source (Popular Vote): Leip, David. 1980 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (August 7, 2005).
Source (Electoral Vote): Electoral College Box Scores 1789–1996. Official website of the National Archives. (August 7, 2005).
[edit] Voter demographics
| SOCIAL GROUPS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, 1980 AND 1976 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Size | '80 Carter | '80 Reagan | '80 Anderson | '76 Carter | '76 Ford | |
| Party | ||||||
| Democrat | 43 | 66 | 26 | 6 | 77 | 22 |
| Independent | 23 | 30 | 54 | 12 | 43 | 54 |
| Republican | 28 | 11 | 84 | 4 | 9 | 90 |
| Ideology | ||||||
| Liberal | 18 | 57 | 27 | 11 | 70 | 26 |
| Moderate | 51 | 42 | 48 | 8 | 51 | 48 |
| Conservative | 31 | 23 | 71 | 4 | 29 | 70 |
| Race | ||||||
| Black | 10 | 82 | 14 | 3 | 82 | 16 |
| Hispanic | 2 | 54 | 36 | 7 | 75 | 24 |
| White | 88 | 36 | 55 | 8 | 47 | 52 |
| Sex | ||||||
| Female | 48 | 45 | 46 | 7 | 50 | 48 |
| Male | 52 | 37 | 54 | 7 | 50 | 48 |
| Religion | ||||||
| Protestant | 46 | 37 | 56 | 6 | 44 | 55 |
| White Protestant | 41 | 31 | 62 | 6 | 43 | 57 |
| Catholic | 25 | 40 | 51 | 7 | 54 | 44 |
| Jewish | 5 | 45 | 39 | 14 | 64 | 34 |
| Family Income | ||||||
| Less than $10,000 | 13 | 50 | 41 | 6 | 58 | 40 |
| $10,000–$14,999 | 15 | 47 | 42 | 8 | 55 | 43 |
| $15,000–$24,999 | 29 | 38 | 53 | 7 | 48 | 50 |
| $25,000–$50,000 | 24 | 32 | 58 | 8 | 36 | 62 |
| Over $50,000 | 5 | 25 | 65 | 8 | — | — |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Professional or manager | 39 | 33 | 56 | 9 | 41 | 57 |
| Clerical, sales, white collar | 11 | 42 | 48 | 8 | 46 | 53 |
| Blue-collar | 17 | 46 | 47 | 5 | 57 | 41 |
| Agriculture | 3 | 29 | 66 | 3 | — | — |
| Unemployed | 3 | 55 | 35 | 7 | 65 | 34 |
| Education | ||||||
| Less than high school | 11 | 50 | 45 | 3 | 58 | 41 |
| High school graduate | 28 | 43 | 51 | 4 | 54 | 46 |
| Some college | 28 | 35 | 55 | 8 | 51 | 49 |
| College graduate | 27 | 35 | 51 | 11 | 45 | 55 |
| Union Membership | ||||||
| Labor union household | 28 | 47 | 44 | 7 | 59 | 39 |
| No member of household in union | 62 | 35 | 55 | 8 | 43 | 55 |
| Age | ||||||
| 18–21 years old | 6 | 44 | 43 | 11 | 48 | 50 |
| 22–29 years old | 17 | 43 | 43 | 11 | 51 | 46 |
| 30–44 years old | 31 | 37 | 54 | 7 | 49 | 49 |
| 45–59 years old | 23 | 39 | 55 | 6 | 47 | 52 |
| 60 years or older | 18 | 40 | 54 | 4 | 47 | 52 |
| Region | ||||||
| East | 25 | 42 | 47 | 9 | 51 | 47 |
| South | 27 | 44 | 51 | 3 | 54 | 45 |
| White South | 22 | 35 | 60 | 3 | 46 | 52 |
| Midwest | 27 | 40 | 51 | 7 | 48 | 50 |
| Far West | 19 | 35 | 53 | 9 | 46 | 51 |
| Community Size | ||||||
| City over 250,000 | 18 | 54 | 35 | 8 | 60 | 40 |
| Suburb/small city | 53 | 37 | 53 | 8 | 53 | 47 |
| Rural/town | 29 | 39 | 54 | 5 | 47 | 53 |
Source: CBS News/ New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls, as reported in the New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28, and in further analysis. The 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.
[edit] References
- ^ http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/11/14/bush.poll/
- ^ US News and World Report Jan. 1969.
- ^ Time Magazine, 11/12/79
- ^ http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-0027(199012)34%3A4%3C588%3AFPAPPC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7
- Books
-
- (1981) Gerald M. Pomper (ed.): The Election of 1980: Reports and Interpretations. Chatham House.
- Ferguson, Thomas, Joel Rogers (1986). Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics. Hill and Wang.
- Germond, Jack W., Jules Witcover (1981). Blue Smoke & Mirrors: How Reagan Won & Why Carter Lost the Election of 1980.
- West, Darrell M. (1984). Making Campaigns Count: Leadership and Coalition-Building in 1980. Greenwood Press.
- Journal articles
-
- Himmelstein, Jerome, J. A. McRae Jr. (1984). "Social Conservatism, New Republicans and the 1980 Election". Public Opinion Quarterly 48: 595–605.
- Lipset, Seymour M., Earl Raab (1981). "Evangelicals and the Elections". Commentary 71: 25–31.
- Miller, Arthur H., Martin P. Wattenberg (1984). "Politics from the Pulpit: Religiosity and the 1980 Elections". Public Opinion Quarterly 48: 300–12.
[edit] See also
- Diane Drufenbrock
- David McReynolds
- President of the United States
- U.S. Senate election, 1980
- History of the United States (1980-1988)
[edit] External links
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