United States House elections, 1994

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The U.S. House election, 1994 was an election for the United States House of Representatives in 1994 that occurred in the middle of President Bill Clinton's first term. As a result of a 54-seat swing in membership from Democrats to Republicans, the Republican Party gained a majority of seats in the House for the first time since 1954.

The Democratic Party had run the House for forty years and had been plagued by a series of scandals. The Republican Party, united behind Newt Gingrich's Contract with America, which promised floor votes on various popular and institutional reforms, was able to capitalize on the perception that the House leadership was corrupt, as well as the dissatisfaction of conservative voters with President Clinton's actions (including a failed attempt at universal health care).

In a historic election, House Speaker Tom Foley (D-Washington) was defeated for re-election in his district, becoming the first Speaker of the House to fail to win re-election since the era of the American Civil War. Other major upsets included the defeat of powerful long-serving Representatives such as Ways and Means Chairman Dan Rostenkowski (D-Illinois) and Judiciary Chairman Jack Brooks (D-Texas). In all, 34 incumbents (all Democrats) were defeated, though several of them (like David Price of North Carolina, Ted Strickland of Ohio, and Jay Inslee of Washington) regained seats in later elections; Maria Cantwell of Washington won a U.S. Senate race in 2000.

Minority whip Newt Gingrich (R-Georgia), re-elected in the Republican landslide, became Speaker (previous Minority Leader Robert H. Michel having retired). Former Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri) became minority leader. The new Republican leadership in the House promise to bring a dozen legislative proposals to a vote in the first 100 days of the session, although the Senate did not always follow suit.

Contents 1 Explanations for Voter behavior 2 Voting Patterns 2.1 GOP Gains, 1992-94 2.2 Religious Right 3 Overall results 3.1 Incumbents defeated 4 Voting members 4.1 Wisconsin 5 References 6 See also

[edit] Explanations for Voter behavior

Many explanations depend on turnout. One says Democrats failed to mobilize their constituencies. Turnout was very low --27%--among low income voters (under $15,000 in family income). However that can not have played a great role: the Democrats received 44.7% of the House vote, trailing the Republican candidates by more than 4.7 million votes. If turnout among the poor had been as high as the average, the Democrats would have received only 47.1 percent of the vote, trailing the Republicans by 4.1 million votes. Another says that Democrats tended more to stay at home, while the GOP voters were energized. But NES polls show that nonvoters only leaned Democratic. Teixeira (1996) argues that downscale voters, particularly white downscale voters, deserted the Democrats and caused their defeat. By education, Democratic support held the same among the college educated but fell 10-11 points among the less educated, compared to 1992. Democratic support declined 20 points (to 37% from 57%) among white men with a high school education and 15 points (31% from 46%) among white men with some college education. Perot's 1992 voters--especially those who never attended college--shifted heavily to the GOP.

Was ideology a factor? Steeper (1995) argues that the force behind the pro-GOP surge was the increased conservative ideology of voters. There was an increase in the proportion of self-identified conservatives (to 37% from 30%) and an increase in the Republican House vote among these conservatives (to 81% from 72%).

The most important factor however, as indicated in exit polls, was the electorate's dissatisfaction with President Clinton. Clinton had defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 election based mainly on voters' resentment at Bush for raising taxes, in spite of earlier campaign promises, and a sense of being out of touch with the country. Ross Perot, in garnering 19% of the popular vote, also strongly affected Clinton's win. The mid-term elections were also an opportunity to redress the balance of power in Washington.

[edit] Voting Patterns

[edit] GOP Gains, 1992-94

Category	% Rep. 1992	% Rep. 1994	% shift to GOP 1992-94	size of group % /all
Southern whites	53	65	12	24
White men	51	62	11	40
White "Born Again" Christian	66	76	10	20
Whites 30-44 years old	51	61	10	28
Independents	46	56	10	24
White Protestants	57	66	9	41
Whites 60 and over	46	55	9	26
Whites	50	58	8	79
Men 30-44 years old	49	57	8	17
Republicans	85	93	8	35
Income under $15,000	31	38	7	11
Conservatives	72	79	7	34
Men 60 and over	44	51	7	12
Whites 45-49	52	59	7	23
Men	48	54	6	49
High school education	42	48	6	22
Some college	47	53	6	32
White women	49	55	6	40
Unmarried men	42	48	6	14
Country on "wrong track"	--	67		59
Disapprove of Clinton	--	82		49
1992 Perot voters	--	67		12

Source: Data from exit-poll surveys by Voter Research and Surveys and Mitofsky International published in the New York Times, 13 November 1994 p. 24

[edit] Religious Right

Evangelicals were an important group within the electorate and a significant voting bloc in the Republican party. The national exit poll by Mitofsky International showed 27% of all voters identified themselves as a born-again or evangelical Christians, up from 18% in 1988 and 24% in 1992. Republican House candidates outpolled Democrats among white evangelicals by a massive 52 points, 76% to 24%.^[1]

According to a survey sponsored by the Christian Coalition, 33 percent of the 1994 voters were "religious conservatives," up from 24 percent in 1992 and 18 percent in 1988 [CQ Weekly Report, November 19, 1994, p3364); in the 1994 exit poll, 38 percent identified themselves as "conservatives," compared with 30 percent in 1992^[2].

Party Identification and Ideology by Selected Religious Groups 1994

	Party identification		Political ideology
Religion	Democrats	Republicans	Liberal	Moderate	Conservative
White evangelical	20%	54%	6%	33%	61%
Highly religious	34	39	15	48	37
Secular	44	27	31	47	22
Jewish	57	13	36	50	14
All voters	41	35	18	47	35

Source: Mitofsky International exit poll in Klinkner p 121

1. ^ Klinkner 118
2. ^ Hotline, November 12, 1994

[edit] Overall results

Party		Seats			Seat percentage	Popular Vote
		1992	Elected	Net Change
	Democratic Party	258	204	-54	46.8%	44.0%
	Independent	1	1	0	0.2%	0.9%
	Republican Party	176	230	+54	52.8%	49.9%
Totals		435	435	+0	100.0%	100.0%

[edit] Incumbents defeated

Every Republican incumbent seeking re-election won. 34 incumbent Democrats were defeated in 1994, with Democrats from Washington losing the most seats (5):

- Karan English (Arizona 6, elected in 1992)

- Dan Hamburg (California 1, elected in 1992)

- Richard Lehman (California 19, elected in 1982)

- Lynn Schenk (California 49, elected in 1992)

- George "Buddy" Darden (Georgia 7, elected in 1982)

- Don Johnson (Georgia 10, elected in 1992)

- Larry LaRocco (Idaho 1, elected in 1990)

- Dan Rostenkowski (Illinois 5, elected in 1958) - a major upset as Rostenkowski was a veteran and chairman of the Ways and Means Committee and his Chicago district was heavily Democratic, though it didn't help that he was under felony indictment.

- Jill Long (Indiana 4, elected in 1988)

- Frank McCloskey (Indiana 8, elected in 1982)

- Neal Smith (Iowa 4, elected in 1958) - also a major upset due to Smith's seniority

- Dan Glickman (Kansas 4, elected in 1976)

- Thomas Barlow (Kentucky 1, elected in 1992)

- Peter Hoagland (Nebraska 2, elected in 1988)

- James Bilbray (Nevada 1, elected in 1986)

- Dick Swett (New Hampshire 2, elected in 1990)

- Herb Klein (New Jersey 8, elected in 1992)

- George Hochbrueckner (New York 1, elected in 1986)

- Martin Lancaster (North Carolina 3, elected in 1986)

- David Price (North Carolina 4, elected in 1986)

- David Mann (Ohio 1, elected in 1992)

- Ted Strickland (Ohio 6, elected in 1992)

- Eric Fingerhut (Ohio 19, elected in 1992)

- Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (Pennsylvania 13, elected in 1992)

- Jack Brooks (Texas 9, elected in 1952) - a huge upset due to Brooks' seniority and chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee

- Bill Sarpalius (Texas 13, elected in 1988)

- Karen Shepherd (Utah 2, elected in 1992)

- Leslie Byrne (Virginia 11, elected in 1992)

- Maria Cantwell (Washington 1, elected in 1992)

- Jolene Unsoeld (Washington 3, elected in 1988)

- Jay Inslee (Washington 4, elected in 1992)

- Tom Foley (Washington 5, elected in 1964) - one of the most historic defeats in congressional history; Foley had not only represented the Spokane area for thirty years, but was Speaker of the House, one of the most powerful men in D.C., so his defeat was symbolic of the entire 1994 election

- Mike Kreidler (Washington 9, elected in 1992)

- Peter Barca (Wisconsin 1, elected in 1993) - Barca's tight win in a 1993 special election in this "safely Democratic" district was a sign of things to come

[edit] Voting members

Key to party abbreviations: C=Constitution, D=Democrat, G=Green, I=Independent, IP=Independence Party, L=Libertarian, R=Republican, T=U.S. Taxpayers Party.

Key to color code: Blue=Democratic pickup; Red=Republican pickup.

[edit] Wisconsin

District	Incumbent	Party	Elected	Status	Opponent
Wisconsin 1	Peter Barca	Democrat	1993	Running	Mark Neumann (R) 49.4% Peter Barca (D) 48.8% Edward Kozak (L) 2%
Wisconsin 2	Scott Klug	Republican	1990	Running	Scott Klug (R) 69% Thomas Hecht (D) 29% John Stumpf (T) 1% Joseph Schumacher (I) 1%
Wisconsin 3	Steve Gunderson	Republican	1980	Running	Steve Gunderson (R) 56% Harvey Stower (D) 41% Chuck Lee (T) 2% Mark Weinhold (I) 1%
Wisconsin 4	Jerry Kleczka	Democrat	1984	Running	Jerry Kleczka (D) 54% Tom Reynolds (R) 45% James Harold Hause (T) 1%
Wisconsin 5	Tom Barrett	Democrat	1992	Running	Tom Barrett (D) 62% Stephen Hollingshead (R) 36% David Schall (I) 1%
Wisconsin 6	Tom Petri	Republican	1979	Running	Tom Petri (R) unopposed
Wisconsin 7	Dave Obey	Democrat	1969	Running	Dave Obey (D) 54% Scott West (R) 46%
Wisconsin 8	Toby Roth	Republican	1978	Running	Toby Roth (R) 64% Stan Gruszynski (D) 36%
Wisconsin 9	James Sensenbrenner	Republican	1979	Running	James Sensenbrenner (R) unopposed

[edit] References

• Klinkner; Philip A. Midterm: The Elections of 1994 in Context Westview Press, 1996
• Steeper, F. "This swing is different: Analysis of 1994 election exit polls". The Cook Political Report (Feb 8 1995)
• Teixeira, Ruy A. "The Economics of the 1994 Election and U.S. Politics Today" Challenge. Volume: 39. Issue: 1. 1996. pp 26+.
• Wattenberg; Martin P. "The Democrats' Decline in the House during the Clinton Presidency: An Analysis of Partisan Swings" Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 29, 1999

[edit] See also

• 104th United States Congress
• United States Senate elections, 1994
• Republican Revolution

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